Chris Manktelow

Human Geography

PhD Researcher in Human Geography (ESRC 1+3)
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter

Start date: September 2016

Research topic: Following the forecast: risk, uncertainty and the life of seasonal and decadal climate forecasts

Improvements in supercomputing and advances in our understanding of how climatic fluctuations operate have now made it possible to produce seasonal and decadal climate forecasts. However, as forecasting extends into seasonal and decadal prediction, the amount of uncertainty increases, resulting in highly contingent projections of the future. This makes it difficult for scientists to communicate seasonal and decadal forecasts to end-users. My research will therefore explore how scientists at the Met Office and forecast users negotiate uncertainty, with the aim of improving the communication of seasonal and decadal climate forecasts.

Research supervisors: Dr Saffron O'Neill, Dr Karen Bickerstaff, Professor Richard Betts